Research
Biomass Exploration Project
A Joint Project between the University of Virginia and Oregon State University.
The University of Virginia, specifically Jacquelyn Shuman, will be responsible for supplying all model run output detailed by species and age at the average as well as individual plot level for sites across Russia. This output will be analyzed and sorted according to dominant species for the purpose of interpreting geographic patterns of agreement and disagreement with the inventory data. This output will compare the proportion of different dominant species in a couple of age classes/groups for the purpose of exploring the geographic patterns of agreement and disagreement between the model and inventory data. JK Shuman will provide the model output for comparison.
Using the detailed version of field inventory data which provides information on species composition within stands, if the set is large enough (1000 records in each location), direct comparisons between model and inventory data will be made. JK Shuman will provide the model output detailing change in species mix within stands for this comparison. This model output will be detailed by latitude and longitude for each model site as well as average and individual plot level dynamics. The data can then be sorted for dominant stands of species of interest. The incidence of species that coincide frequently in the same stands in a given region and those that do not can guide the analysis framework.
Consultation between OSU and UVa will help determine if there are reasons to simulate more than one sucessional pattern in a given location – e.g., slower growing larch-dominated stands on permafrost sites/ northern slopes versus more productive pine or spruce/fir on southern slopes. The model runs of more successional patterns will be created by Tim Stevens of UVa and then run and evaluated by Jacquelyn Shuman.
Assessment of the role of stand distribution by age classes in shaping C dynamics will be completed by both OSU and UVa for the purpose of comparing changes in carbon stores for different age distributions. At the time of inventory (1990-2000) – this is simply your net annual change in C store change in C weighed by areas; we could compare the results with Isaev/Korovon approach, put into context of changes in C stores that are outside this analysis (fire, harvest, etc.). OSU will provide a detailed age analysis of forest inventory data. These chronosequences will be used to adjust the model output according to various age distributions and provide a picture of changes in carbon storage. Jacquelyn Shuman will modify the model output according to the chronosequences supplied by OSU.
Tim Stevens will assist in programming and creation of a database of the model output for analysis. OSU will be responsible for exploring several decades prior to inventory. The major part of this is detecting regeneration pulses from past major disturbance events and reconstructing past distributions by age classes; then do the same as above with UVa providing model output and disturbance adjustment to species distributions and biomass. UVa can explore into the future for several alternative disturbance scenarios – e.g., extensive fires over short period. We can assume no change in regeneration following disturbance but UVa could also use the model to play with regeneration scenarios. Tim Stevens will be responsible for modification to the existing model regeneration scenarios. Jacquelyn Shuman will be responsible for running and evaluating model output for these changes.
Collaboration between OSU and UVa will assess how much the history of land use influences the chronosequence of biomass accumulation that OSU extracts from forest inventory data. OSU will locate biomass curves from other sources that are not affected by disturbance histories as much as forest inventory data is (e.g., Basilevich set). The latter tend to exaggerate productivity thus ideally the model projections, which will be supplied by Jacquelyn Shuman, should fit between the biomass curves derived from research plots and those derived from forest inventories.
