PeopleStudentsNancy J Sherman, Graduate Student

Nancy J Sherman, Graduate Student

Hometown:
Arlington, VA

Region of Interest:
Russian Far East and Northeastern China

Project:
The Impact of Potential Climate Change on Amur Tiger and Amur Leopard Habitat in Russia and China: Applying the FAREAST Model at the Regional Scale

Climate warming is occurring more rapidly in high latitudes than in areas closer to the Equator, which soon may significantly alter the habitats of endangered wildlife. Northern latitudes are warming more rapidly as atmospheric CO2 increases because of positive feedbacks associated with the loss of albedo, a result of diminished snow cover, changes in vegetation, and increased decomposition. The rapidly changing climate affects the forests of northeastern China and the Russian Far East, including the native habitats of the Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) and Amur leopard (P. pardus orientalis), both of which are critically endangered. The focus of my research is to model the effects of climate change across the existing and potential habitat of these subspecies and to assess the impact of climate-related vegetation change. Since the presence of adequate prey is the greatest predictor of the range of the tiger and leopard (Ramakrishnan et al 1999; Miquelle et al 1999, Miquelle 2006; Seidensticker 1986), “habitat” will include prey’s existing and potential range as well.

The Russian Far East’s forests, which covered 142.5 million ha in 2002 (Aksenov et al 2002), contain fir, spruce, pine, oak, maple, larch, birch, and many other species. (Newell 2004). The broadleaf/Korean pine ecosystem found in the RFE is one of the most biologically diverse temperate forests in the world. In China’s temperate forest ecosystems, broad-leaf/Korean pine mixed forests are the dominant type of mature forest (Cheng et al 1982; Jiang et al 1999). After logging, the broad-leaf/Korean pine forests in Northeastern China mostly have grown back into forests composed of oak; aspen and birch; or larch (Cheng et al 1982; Jian et al 1999).

This research utilizes the FAREAST model, developed by Yan Xiaodong and H.H. Shugart (2005), to predict the structure and composition of mature forests under current conditions and in a modified climate. FAREAST incorporates climate data, soil information, latitude, elevation and standard vegetation dynamics of 44 tree species to simulate forest succession patterns and results. The model was verified in the Changbai Mountains in northeastern China in 2005 and validated in the RFE, where mature forest structure in terms of basal area and composition in terms of biomass was correctly simulated at 23 of 31 sites.

Awards and Publications:
This project is supported by NASA ROSES-2006 IDS grant for "Evaluation of Habitat availability for Large Carnivores Under a Changing Climate and Disturbance Regime: the Amur Tiger and Amur Leopard Case Study"